Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Flavin, T;Panopoulo, E;Pantelidis, T
2009
August
Journal of Forecasting
Forecasting Growth and Inflation in an Enlarged Euro Area
Published
2 ()
Optional Fields
REAL ACTIVITY FINANCIAL VARIABLES LEADING INDICATORS OUTPUT GROWTH STOCK RETURNS ASSET PRICES
28
405
425
We compare models for forecasting growth and inflation in the enlarged euro area. Forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single-equation models. The analysis is undertaken for both individual countries and EU aggregate variables. Aggregate forecasts are constructed by both employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. Using financial variables for country-specific forecasts tends to add little to the predictive ability of a simple AR model. However, they do help to predict EU aggregates. Furthermore, forecasts from pooling individual country models usually outperform those of the aggregate itself, particularly for the EU25 grouping. This is particularly interesting from the perspective of the European Central Bank, who require forecasts of economic activity and inflation to formulate appropriate economic policy across the enlarged group. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
CHICHESTER
0277-6693
10.1002/for.1117
Grant Details