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Adrian Kavanagh
2016
July
Good poll for largest parties, but a bad one for the independents: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll (3rd July 2016)
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After a series of Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls showed little in the way of movement in terms of support levels for different parties and groupings, the first Sunday Independent-Millward Brown opinion poll since the February 26th election shows some notable shifts in political support levels. While support levels for some of the smaller parties and groupings – Labour, the Green Party and Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit – remain relatively similar to the levels of support at the 2016 General Election, the three largest parties – Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail – are all seen to gain support mainly at the expense of the Independents grouping. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 60, Fianna Fail 47, Sinn Fein 29, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6, Labour Party 6, Social Democrats 3, Green Party 2, Independents 5.
https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/07/04/good-poll-for-largest-parties-but-a-bad-one-for-the-independents-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-independent-millward-brown-opinion-poll-3rd-july-2016/
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